The Tsunami Countdown Read online

  “What is it?” Brad said.

  “Maybe I did the calculation wrong.” Reggie started over and typed all of the numbers in again. When he saw the results, he leaned back and shook his head.

  “Oh, man,” Reggie said, “if this model is anywhere close to being accurate, we’re in serious trouble.”

  “How big?” Kai asked, already knowing that it was beyond his worst fears.

  Reggie let out a heavy sigh. “At least seventy when it gets here.”

  “Holy shit!” Brad said. “The Asian tsunami didn’t get bigger than thirty feet high, did it?”

  Reggie shook his head. “There are some estimates that it got at least twice that high in Banda Aceh.”

  Brad’s eyes goggled at the awe-inspiring thought. “So seventy feet will be huge.”

  Kai put his hand on Brad’s shoulder. He didn’t get it.

  “Brad, all of our figures are in metric units. Meters, not feet. Seventy meters. The wave is going to be over two hundred feet high.”

  TWENTY

  10:28 A.m.

  54 Minutes to Wave Arrival Time

  The prospect of a two-hundred-foot-high wall of water hitting a populated coastline was unmatched in recorded civilization. The biggest tsunami to hit any kind of populated area was the monster wave that resulted from the explosion of Krakatoa in 1883. The hundred-foot-high wave wiped out entire villages in the Sunda Strait of Indonesia, killing thirty-six thousand people. Now they were facing the possibility of a wave at least twice that big hitting one of the most densely populated coastlines in the world.

  The phone rang, and Kai picked it up slowly, his mind reeling.

  “Tanaka,” he said.

  “Dr. Tanaka, this is Jeanette Leslie from CNN. I have some questions about the tsunami warning that was issued a few minutes ago.”

  “I’m sorry, but I don’t have time to answer questions right now.”

  “But, Dr. Tanaka, you—”

  Before she could get any further, Kai hung up. Within moments, the phone rang again.

  “It’s started,” Reggie said.

  “The phone’s going to be ringing off the hook.” Without a receptionist to field the calls, just answering the phone would take up all of their time. Kai turned to Brad.

  “I need your help again.”

  “Answer the phones?”

  “Yes. Reggie and I have too much to do.”

  “But what do I say? I don’t know anything.”

  “Actually, you know a lot. Maybe too much. I can’t have you giving out quotes to the media. Just tell them we will issue an official statement in”—Kai glanced at his watch—“ten minutes. Until then, no comment.”

  Dealing with the media was a double-edged sword. Fielding their calls would take precious minutes away from calculating wave arrival times for the rest of the Pacific islands. On the other hand, giving the media statements could be a powerful tool for warning the public to get to high ground. But Kai couldn’t blindside HSCD. He needed to confer with them first. And it would definitely help to have some confirmation from NASA.

  “What about the meteor impact?” Brad said. “Do you think we should mention that?”

  “Look, Kai,” said Reggie, “I’m buying into your theory. We’ve got a big tsunami coming. But I think talking about a meteorite impact at this point is premature.”

  “Right,” Brad said. “Why should we jump to conclusions? We have, oh, fifty-three minutes left. No reason to panic!”

  “I didn’t say we shouldn’t issue another warning!”

  “Calm down, you two,” Kai said quietly. “Reggie, send out an update that we have lost contact with Johnston Island and Christmas Island, and we believe a large tsunami may hit the coastline of Hawaii. We recommend that people get as far inland as possible.”

  “Large tsunami?” Reggie said.

  “Okay, massive tsunami.”

  “I guess vertical evacuation is out.”

  In most tsunamis, the downtown and Waikiki areas of Honolulu were so densely populated that evacuation by road, or “horizontal evacuation,” would cause huge traffic jams, essentially stopping all motion on the roads and inhibiting the movement of emergency vehicles and buses. For those who couldn’t evacuate away from the beach on foot or by vehicle, they normally recommended taking refuge above the third floor of a building at least six stories tall.

  But in this case, the biggest wave was going to be at least the height of a twenty-story building. People following the standard instructions would be sentenced to death.

  Kai nodded. “Recommend that people should get to high ground and that they may not be safe on high floors of buildings.”

  “What about calling it a mega-tsunami?”

  Mega-tsunami, a term used by the popular press, had no scientific definition, but the generally accepted understanding was that it was a tsunami over one hundred feet in height. Using the term would be a huge step. Warning about a tsunami was one thing. Warning about a megatsunami was unprecedented. The media would latch on to it like lampreys.

  “Not until we get confirmation from NASA or the DART buoy. Just say that it’s a massive tsunami and that we’re not ready to estimate the height.”

  “Gotcha. Helluva holiday, huh?”

  Brad tapped him on the shoulder.

  “Kai, I’ve got NESDIS on hold with Brian Renfro.”

  “Good. Maybe they have something.”

  “I also have Harry Dupree, George Huntley, and Mary Grayson holding. They called in as soon as they heard about the tsunami warning.”

  “Where are they?” Kai was hoping George and Mary might be close enough to come in. Having two more scientists at the PTWC would be a big help.

  “Harry’s in the Maui County Police Department. George and Mary are on the North Shore, at least an hour’s drive from here.”

  “Okay,” Kai said. “They’re not going to do us any good here. Transfer the NASA call over here, and tell the others to wait.”

  A few seconds later, the phone at the monitoring desk rang. As Kai picked up the phone, he motioned to Reggie.

  “Reggie, once you’ve sent out the new warning, keep an eye on the DART data. Let me know the minute we start to get a reading.”

  Reggie nodded and started typing at the terminal.

  “Hello,” Kai said, getting back on the line. “Brian, you there?”

  “I’m here, Kai. I’ve also got someone from NASA.”

  “Hello. My name is Kai Tanaka, assistant director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Who’s this?”

  A woman’s chipper voice responded. “This is Gail Wentworth, the duty scientist at NOAA’s Satellite Analysis Branch. Mr. Renfro said it was important. How can I help you?”

  “It is important. The lives of almost every person in Hawaii may be at risk. I need to know if you have any photos or video taken over the central Pacific in the last hour. Specifically, at 1841 GMT.”

  “Let me see. GOES-10 takes images every thirty minutes. I’ve got an image from 1830 GMT. There’s also the MTSAT from Japan.”

  “No. You don’t understand. I need an image from 1841 GMT or after. We have reason to believe a meteorite struck that area this morning, and that a massive tsunami is headed toward Hawaii.”

  Wentworth paused to take that in, then slowly said, “Why do you think a meteorite impact is the cause of it?”

  “Several reasons I don’t have time to go into,” Kai said. “Do you have any images from the area of the Pacific with these coordinates?” He read Wentworth the longitude and latitude of the earthquake epicenter.

  “The next GOES image is from 1900 GMT,” she said, “but even that may not help you. I don’t know if the resolution is great enough to see an impact like that. Besides, there’s a storm in that area of the Pacific. It may obscure an impact.”

  Wentworth’s pace was agonizing for Kai.

  “We have fifty-three minutes until the wave gets here,” Kai said impatiently. “Less to the Big Island. Are there
any other options? What about the space shuttle?”

  “Discovery is the only one in orbit. It’s docked with the space station. They’re over Egypt right now. As you know, the region you’re talking about is hundreds of miles from the nearest inhabited island. A higher-resolution polar-orbiting satellite may have been over that region this morning, but it’ll take me a little while to check and get any images we have to you.”

  “Please let me know as soon as you have confirmation. Minutes count.”

  “I’ll do my best.”

  Kai thanked Wentworth and gave her the e-mail address where she could send the images. When Kai hung up, Reggie waved him over to his terminal.

  “I’m getting the DART buoy data now.”

  Kai bent over Reggie’s terminal, explaining to Brad what they were looking at.

  “This graph shows the displacement of the height of the sea level as a function of time. As the line of the graph goes up, the height of the sea level increases.”

  “How can the buoy detect a change in sea level with all the regular waves going by?”

  “The buoy is just a transmitting device. The scientific instrumentation is actually on the ocean floor, measuring changes in pressure of the water above it. Then it sends those readings by an acoustic modem to the buoy, where it links with a communications satellite. The wind-driven waves aren’t big enough to affect the pressure sensor on the seafloor, so it normally only fluctuates with the tidal pull of the moon.”

  Kai pointed to an historical graph that showed the sea level height going up and down on a daily basis. “But if a tsunami passes over it, the entire column of water from the surface all the way down to the bottom is affected by the wave.”

  “Will you look at that,” Reggie said, his voice weighted with awe.

  The line on the graph had already started to climb. Kai held his breath, hoping it would stay small, nothing more than a blip. But the line inexorably rose higher, propelled by the five-hundred-mile-an-hour wave. In two minutes, the line had topped out at 0.65 meters above sea level.

  “I guess we’re sure now,” Reggie said.

  “Zero point six five meters?” Brad said. “But that’s great! Less than three feet!” His enthusiasm waned when he saw Reggie’s grim face.

  Reggie shook his head. “That’s in the open ocean. In a boat, you wouldn’t even notice the change in sea level.”

  Kai leaned back, finally coming to grips with the reality of the situation. “In the deep ocean,” he said, “the wave goes all the way to the seafloor. Once it reaches shallow water, it’ll start to bunch up, slow down, and grow in height. How high it gets on land depends on the run-up factor at that part of the coast. Multiply the run-up factor by the wave height at sea, and you get how high the wave will be on land.”

  “The run-up factor for Honolulu is forty,” said Reggie.

  Brad did a quick mental calculation. “That’s twenty-five meters. Seventy-five feet. At least it’s smaller than two hundred feet.”

  Kai shook his head. “A seventy-five-foot wave is huge. Besides, that’s just the first wave. There might be more—maybe two or three more.”

  “The computer models from the lab at Los Alamos expected the first wave from an asteroid impact to be the biggest one,” Reggie said. “But this has never happened before, so who knows? We’ll know if and when we get the next DART reading. In any case, we have confirmation now, even without the NASA photos.”

  Kai nodded. “Brad, call Brian Renfro back and conference him in with Harry, George, and Mary.”

  After a few seconds, they were all on the line, with one added person Kai hadn’t been expecting.

  “Kai,” Brian said, “when you first told me your theory, I took the precaution of asking the governor to make her way to the HSCD bunker. She’s still on her way, so I asked her to conference in from her car.”

  The governor didn’t waste time with chitchat.

  “Dr. Tanaka,” the governor said, “is this a false alarm?”

  “I’m sorry to say it isn’t, Governor,” Kai said. “We don’t have much time. I got you all on the line so I would only have to say this once. We believe an asteroid struck the central Pacific about an hour ago, although we don’t have confirmation from NASA just yet. What we do know is that a major tsunami is headed our way. And when I say major, I mean one that will make the Asian tsunami look like a kiddie pool. The first wave will be over twenty meters. If we get more waves, the max wave height could be over seventy meters, but we won’t know for sure until we get the DART buoy readings for any follow-up waves.”

  “But you’re sure about the first wave, Dr. Tanaka?” the governor said.

  “Yes, Ma’am. No doubt.”

  “Okay. Good work catching this in time. Brian tells me that was a gutsy call.”

  “Thank you, Ma’am, but we’ve still got a lot of work to do.”

  “I know. I’m getting off the phone now so I can mobilize the National Guard. You guys keep doing what you need to do. And let me know if you need anything from me. I’ll be at the HSCD in ten minutes.” With a click, the governor was gone.

  “Is everyone else still there?” Kai said.

  “I am,” Mary said, her voice quavering. “But George got off the phone to call his mother. She lives near the beach in Hilo.”

  Kai looked at Brad, who shook his head. No word from Teresa.

  “You should all take a minute to call your families,” Kai said. “Mary, you and George are too far away to do us any good right now, so I don’t want you to try to get back here.”

  “Dammit!” Mary said. “Isn’t there anything we can do?”

  “Eventually, we’ll have to leave the center and relocate somewhere up island. I’m thinking that Wheeler is the best option, so you can try heading in that direction. I don’t know how long cell phones will work, but keep them handy. Harry, since you’re already at the Maui Police Department, you can help coordinate there. All we can tell people is to get as far inland and as high up as possible.”

  “Our houses will be hit by the first wave,” Harry said. Every person on the conference call would be homeless in a little less than an hour.

  “I know. And we don’t have any time to get your personal stuff out. I’m sorry.” It was the same story for Kai. Fifteen years of his family’s memories would soon be lost forever.

  “What about you guys?” Harry said, the concern in his voice apparent. “Don’t hang around there too long.”

  “I will evacuate us in time to get to safety. But until then we have a job to do and very little time to do it. We’re going to have to throw our normal procedures out the window. At this point, all we can do is get as many people out of Honolulu as we can.”

  The clock on the wall said 10:32.

  “Fifty minutes,” Kai said. “That’s how long we’ve got to evacuate over half a million people.”

  TWENTY-ONE

  10:33 a.m.

  49 Minutes to Wave Arrival Time

  Kai called Rachel himself this time. He needed her to know how dangerous the situation was, especially because what he was telling her sounded so improbable. “It’s good you didn’t have Brad call me,” Rachel said. “I’d think it was a joke.”

  “I know this sounds crazy, but it’s what the data are telling us.”

  “An asteroid? I can’t believe it.”

  “I know. But if I’m right, nobody is safe in that hotel.”

  “What about the Starlight restaurant on the twenty-eighth floor? We’ve got lots of room up there.”

  “Rachel, even if the wave doesn’t reach that high, the building might collapse.”

  “But we have over a thousand guests staying in the hotel! Not to mention a ballroom full of disabled veterans.”

  “You’ve got to start evacuating them now. Do you have any buses for them?”

  “I had some scheduled to pick them up and take them to the cemetery for the ceremony this afternoon, but they’re not supposed to be here for another hour.”<
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  “Look, it’s at least a fifteen-minute walk to a safe zone from there. That means you’ve only got about thirty minutes left to get everyone out.”

  “That’s not enough time—”

  “Rachel, the tsunami doesn’t care if it’s enough time. That’s when it’s going to get here, and anyone left in the hotel after that time won’t make it.”

  Kai could hear a pause while she tried to accept what he was telling her.

  “Okay,” she finally said. “Where should they go?”

  “They should use one of the west bridges off of Waikiki and then just head uphill until they can’t go any farther. The best would be for them to try to get up to the Punchbowl or into one of the hillside neighborhoods. If they aren’t safe there, I don’t know where they’ll be safe.” The National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific, known locally as the Punchbowl, was an extinct volcanic crater holding vast rows of veterans’ graves. The sides of it were over four hundred feet high.

  “What about Lani? What about Teresa and Mia?”

  “I haven’t heard from them. I’m sure they’ve heard the warnings and are heading to high ground as we speak.”

  “Then why haven’t they called?”

  “The phone lines are jammed. I’m lucky I got through to you. Plus, Teresa’s phone battery is dead. She probably doesn’t want to stop and call us from a landline until she’s safe. Which is the right thing to do.”

  “Okay. But let me know the minute you hear anything. I better get going. I’ve got a lot of people to evacuate.”

  “Rachel, promise me you’ll be walking in thirty minutes.”

  “I promise that as soon as I get everyone out, I’ll get out too.”

  “If you don’t get out before that, you’ll be stuck in the hotel. There won’t be time to get to safety between the waves. They’re too big.”

  “I understand that, Kai, but I am responsible for these people. I have to do my job.”

  “I know. Go do it. And, honey, I love you.”